Artificial intelligence” (AI) has become one of the buzzwords of the decade, as a potentially important part of the answer to humanity’s biggest challenges in everything from addressing climate change to fighting cancer and even halting the ageing process. It is widely seen as the most important technological development since the mass use of electricity, one that will usher in the next phase of human evolution. At the same time, some warnings that AI could lead to widespread unemployment, rising inequality, the development of surveillance dystopias, or even the end of humanity are worryingly convincing. States would, therefore, be well advised to actively guide AI’s development and adoption into their societies.

For Europe, 2019 was the year of AI strategy development, as a growing number of EU member states put together expert groups, organised public debates, and published strategies designed to grapple with the possible implications of AI. European countries have developed training programmes, allocated investment, and made plans for cooperation in the area. 2020 is likely to be an important one for AI in Europe, as member states and the European Union will need to show that they can fulfil their promises by translating ideas into effective policies.

Despite these positive developments, Europeans generally pay too little attention to one aspect of the issue: the use of AI in the military realm. Strikingly, the military implications of AI are absent from many European AI strategies, as governments and officials appear uncomfortable discussing the subject (with the exception of the debate on limiting “killer robots”). Similarly, the academic and expert discourse on AI in the military also tends to overlook Europe, predominantly focusing on developments in the US, China, and, to some extent, Russia. This is likely because most researchers consider Europe to be an unimportant player in the area. A focus on the United States is nothing new in military studies, given that the country is the world’s leading military and technological power. And China has increasingly drawn experts’ attention due to its rapidly growing importance in world affairs and its declared aim of increasing its investment in AI. Europe, however, remains forgotten.

Overall, there are many possible uses of AI in the military and security realm – most of which receive little public attention due to the dominance of the debate on killer robots. A comparative study of the three biggest European states reveals that France and Germany appear to be at opposite ends of the AI spectrum in Europe. France sees AI in general as an area of geopolitical competition and military AI in particular as an important element of French strategy. In contrast, Germany has been much more reluctant to engage with the topic of AI in warfare, and appears uninterested in the geopolitics of the technology. Military AI seems to be an acceptable topic of discussion for Germany only in arms control. For now, the UK is somewhere between these two positions. It is not as outspoken about military AI as France, but it is clearly interested in the military opportunities that AI provides. Independently of their governments’ positions, all three countries’ defence industries are developing AI-enabled capabilities.

As it is relatively early days in the development and use of operational AI-enabled military systems, it is possible that European countries’ positions will align over time. If they do not, however, this could pose real problems for European defence cooperation. Given that the EU is investing a great deal of effort in this area through instruments such as Permanent Structured Cooperation and the European Defence Fund, intra-European disagreements on one of the most crucial new technologies is a cause for concern. This is particularly true for pan-European projects such as FCAS, a fighter jet project involving France, Germany, and Spain that is set to include various AI-enabled capabilities. If France pushes for greater AI development – potentially even leading to LAWS while Germany does not, this cooperation could soon run into problems.

In this context, the EU could play an important role in helping member states harmonise their approaches to military AI. The EU already acts as a coordinating power for European national AI strategies, with “ethical AI” as its guiding principle. A similar approach could work for military AI. The European Commission should draft a coordinating strategy for military AI, outlining its ideas for areas of development in which common European engagement would be particularly useful (such as sharing systems to train algorithms), while setting red lines (in areas such as the development and use of LAWS). The EU should ask member states to respond to this guidance by outlining their ideas on, and approaches to, AI. In this way, European states could take advantage of one another’s expertise in AI development while working together to improve Europe’s military capabilities.

‘Not Smart Enough: The Poverty of European Military Thinking on Artificial Intelligence’ – Policy Brief by Ulrike Esther Franke – European Council on Foreign Relations / ECFR.

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Human activity will almost certainly push global temperatures more than 2 degrees beyond pre-industrial levels. Even with aggressive action, some climate scientists are already suggesting it may be too late to reverse course. While there’s plenty of uncertainty in climate science, there’s no good reason to assume anything other than the worst possible outcome. And there’s a lot more certainty in human behavior. We’re short-sighted, fight-or-flight–driven animals. The threat of climate change is too slow, too distant, for the human brain to meaningfully react to it in the here and now.

Climate scientists will keep running studies and modeling solutions that could reduce carbon dioxide levels more aggressively. And we should do that. But even with the most optimistic science out there, we will likely end up with catastrophic consequences on the ground, including widespread war, famine and an onslaught of disease. We need a backup plan like never before.

It’s time for humanity to get serious about getting out of Dodge. Colonization was traditionally a journey of discovery. Today it’s a journey for survival. Of course, the path between our science fiction novels and a serious colonization mission is rife with challenges. One of the most important and pressing today is our need for massive advancements in artificial intelligence. Without AI, humanity’s colonization hopes do not pass “Go.”

Sadly, the essential role that AI plays in our long-term survival is obfuscated by a roaring debate about automation killing jobs in the next five years. The benefits of aggressive investment in AI so dramatically outweigh the costs that the only rational chess move is to triple-down on AI and all of its enabling technologies.

The Chinese government seems to understand this better than the rest of the world. Its AI plan is so bold, so ambitious and so well-funded that most experts acknowledge it has the potential to reshape the geopolitical landscape for generations. Perhaps they understand what many do not: AI won’t just save humanity in the future; it’s doing it now, and it has been doing it for a while.

 HUMANITY’S UNSUNG HERO

NASA is clear that AI is the future of space exploration. The reasons are fairly obvious: Wherever our probes go, they either need to be controlled from Earth, or have some sort of intelligence to guide even the most rudimentary decisions.

Even small decisions that the average person wouldn’t think about, like choosing which areas of a planet are most interesting for taking pictures, are now made by artificial intelligence. The AEGIS system on the Mars rover Curiosity is just one current example, but AI has been playing a role since the early 2000s, when the Spirit and Opportunity rovers used the AutoNav system.

Last year, Google’s machine learning discovered a new planet using NASA’s archived Kepler data. Consider that we’ve been sitting on this data for years, but a neural network was able to discover a planet in mere minutes. Yet right after the announcement of this remarkable achievement, Google felt the need to reassure astronomers worldwide that their jobs were safe: “What we’ve developed here is a tool to help astronomers have more impact,” Chris Shallue said on a conference call about the news. “It’s a way to increase the productivity of astronomers. It certainly won’t replace them at all.”

Imagine that — AI had just massively reduced the time it takes to discover planets, to unravel the mysteries of the universe around us and light a path to a potential future home for our species, and somehow we’re worried about jobs. Even if you count only discoveries made without leaving our planet, we’re in the golden age of space exploration, a time when human knowledge is multiplying, all thanks to basic AI.

AN AI AT EVERY FRONTIER

Many climate scientists have already made the claim that climate change is now a big data problem. AI, of course, is the best technology we have for processing and analyzing massive amounts of data. If you’re holding out hope that we can turn things around on Earth, the answer is pretty simple: We need more, and better, AI.

In 2017, for the first time ever, federal scientists requested funds to accelerate research into climate engineering. They specifically cited two areas of research: removing carbon dioxide from our atmosphere and increasing Earth’s ability to reflect sunlight. This is the stuff of science-fiction novels, and the data analysis and modeling tasks alone are massive and prohibitive, but AI makes it possible to embark on these new paths to scientific discovery.

Environmental science is seeing a similar lift thanks to AI. A recent report from the World Economic Forum cited opportunities to use AI for everything from smart grids to weather modeling and prediction, to biodiversity, agriculture, conservation and ocean health.

If you’re less optimistic about Earth’s prospects, AI is already playing a role in microbiome research, which might hold answers to the most daunting block to long-term human space travel: human physiology. That our immune systems change in space isn’t just an interesting phenomenon — it could mean disaster for a 200- or 300-year colonization mission. NASA has active research projects in this area, and they learned a lot from astronaut Scott Kelly’s year on the International Space Station, such as the power required to safely send and land a heavy craft carrying three years’ worth of supplies for a mission to Mars. But it’s going to come down to AI to accelerate this research.

Consider long-distance space travel and the delays in communication with Houston as spacecraft get farther away from Earth. The farther we want to go, the more dependent our missions are on AI that can make accurate, autonomous decisions in the face of unexpected conditions.

It’s increasingly evident: Whether on Earth or in space, any solution to climate change, fight or flight, begins with AI.

JOBS ARE NOT TOO HIGH A PRICE

Humanity is indeed making a grand bargain with our own technological creations. We surrender to the machines some of our jobs. In exchange, we are given a second chance to make better decisions for future generations.

If you believe the future of the human race depends on our ability to colonize somewhere other than Earth, then you agree that AI will save humanity. If you believe that we can engineer our way out of the climate crisis here on Earth, then you agree that AI will save humanity.

And when you think about what’s at stake, do you really care who or what makes your hamburger?

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